Stress-Testing Adaptation Options

Abstract This technical contribution discusses ways of testing the performance adaptation projects despite uncertainty about climate change. Robust decision making frameworks are recommended for evaluating project under a range credible scenarios. Stress-testing options help to establish conditions which there may be trade-offs between or even failure deliverables. Stress-tests undertaken specified portfolios management options, using models system being managed (including inputs and drivers change), then assessed against decision-relevant indicators with agreed appraisal criteria. Field experiments model simulations can designed test costs benefits measures. Simple rules operationalize findings trials—such as ‘plant 1 km trees along headwater stream cool summer water temperatures by °C’. However, insights gained from field-based stress-testing limited experienced during observation period. These not severe enough represent extreme weather in future. Model overcome this constraint applying changes within virtual worlds models. Nonetheless, care must taken select meaningful change metrics plausible boundary non-climate pressures. All should accompanied monitoring, evaluation learning benchmark confirm that expected outcomes achieved.